Likud Members Divide on Election Odds as Nonprofits Launch Turnout Push

Divisions are widening within the Likud party as Israeli voters prepare to cast ballots on Tuesday. A Likud source described a split among party members regarding the likely outcome. Some leaders express confidence in victory, while others worry that a coordinated effort to suppress Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will determine the result.

Optimists rely on internal forecasts managed by Shlomo Filber, who directs the party's polling. The source characterized the internal sentiment as a binary choice regarding Filber's predictions. "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other," the source said.

Tension is fueled by financial activity from nonprofit organizations that are not directly funded by political parties. Likud sources report these groups are directing large sums toward mobilizing voters in the opposition camp. The campaigns include social media ads, street signage, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and initiatives to bring diaspora Israelis home to vote.

One official described the activity as "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The party argues these organizations provide a support network that operates outside standard party financing rules. However, Likud officials did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or for claims that the activity was illegal.

Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for its focus. The party claimed the committee prioritized enforcing limits on campaign videos and public resource use while neglecting the work of these outside organizations. In response, Likud is organizing a large ground operation for Election Day, despite restrictions on gathering data from polling stations. The strategy focuses on preventing right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates.

The party attempted to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to withdraw from the race. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade, leads the People of Israel party. Negotiations involved Rabbi Eli Sadan, who later issued a statement supporting Winter. Likud is also courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud about legislation for deputy minister positions.

The election date of October 27 allows the current government to complete its term. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.