Deadlock: Israeli election exit polls show 51-51 tie as Arab bloc hits record

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud are tied at 51 seats each in the 120-member Knesset, according to exit polls released after Tuesday’s vote. The stalemate leaves both opposition and ruling blocs short of the 61 seats required to form a government, forcing a scramble for coalition partners in a parliament fractured by a historic surge in Arab voter participation.

The Central Elections Committee reported that overall turnout reached 77.7 percent, the highest level since 1999. Participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel climbed even higher, hitting approximately 80 percent according to Channel 12, which broke the previous record set in 1999. This demographic represents about 21 percent of Israel’s 10 million residents, a group that historically voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis.

Arab-led parties are projected to win a combined 18 seats, a record high for their blocs. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra’am, said he hopes the final tally will allow the anti-Netanyahu camp to secure the 61 seats needed to govern. “With the numbers we have now, there is no government,” Abbas told Channel 12. Ra’am currently holds five seats and served in the previous coalition from 2021 to 2022.

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, noted that Eisenkot’s camp pledged during the campaign to avoid coalitions with Arab parties, creating a dilemma for forming a majority. “There’s a price to pay,” Pinkas told Al Jazeera, noting that Arab lists will make demands a Jewish-led coalition might reject.

Netanyahu’s team launched a last-minute effort on Tuesday to mobilize supporters, citing the high turnout among Palestinian voters. Witnesses described cars with Likud flags driving through Jerusalem with loudspeakers playing the Islamic call to prayer, urging residents to vote because “Arabs are voting.” Arab politicians called the tactic racist.

On social media, Netanyahu shared images of long lines at polling stations in Arab communities, including women in niqab. “If we don’t wake up now, we’ll find ourselves with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi,” he wrote, naming two senior Palestinian Knesset members.

Nour Odeh, reporting from Ramallah, described the vote as an existential moment for Palestinian-Israelis. She noted that the high turnout included voters who usually boycott elections due to doubts about change or systemic discrimination. The Knesset has passed more than 100 laws discriminating against Palestinian citizens, who also face disparities in state funding.