640,000 New Israeli Ballots Hold the Key to 12 Knesset Seats

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, for an election where the choices of young adults may determine the final composition of the government.

The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) calculates that 640,000 individuals between the ages of 18 and 22 are eligible to vote. This demographic represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective decisions could influence the outcome for up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Tammy Hoffman, who leads the IDI education policy program, stated that the institute co-sponsored a recent event with the Yigal Allon Center. She noted that Israel maintains a high birth rate and a young population. Hoffman said that if turnout matches their research projections, these first-time voters will alter the political balance.

The IDI surveyed prospective Jewish and Arab voters in May. Between 80% and 95% of respondents said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents indicated an intent to vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young people were certain to vote and another 19% believed they would.

National security and the cost of living emerged as the top priorities for both Jewish and Arab youth. Hoffman explained that this generation experienced the pandemic in junior high, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. She described the group as being worried about their future.

Political leanings vary across the demographic. An N12 poll from Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people identified as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same survey, 16% said they would vote for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Mock elections in high schools showed strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with less support for Itamar Ben-Gvir's party.

Individual motivations remain specific. Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon in an army preparation program, plans to back either the Democrats or Yashar. She said she is voting to change the country's future. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem, intends to support the Religious Zionist party, citing the need for a secure Israel. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, will vote for the Democrats based on economic concerns such as tuition and housing costs. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that addresses resource gaps and crime, stating, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."