Yitzhak Goldknopf's Three Seats and Naftali Bennett May Decide Israel's Coalition

Political assessments released just before the Israeli election suggest that Yitzhak Goldknopf’s three-seat Agudat Yisrael faction could support a government led by the opposition. This potential backing would likely come in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. The move aims to stabilize the Knesset despite the narrow margins expected from the upcoming vote.

The idea of Agudat Yisrael cooperating with the change bloc is not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring fresh options, including working with Gadi Eisenkot. These discussions followed friction inside United Torah Judaism. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition, while Degel Hatorah showed a lack of confidence in Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando also wrote a letter voicing reservations about maintaining commitments to the Netanyahu-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a major hurdle because his voters generally identify with the Right. Political figures believe that any sign he would back an opposition government could push some supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic adds risk to the proposed deal, even if budgetary incentives are on the table.

Attention is also turning to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. He could determine the shape of the next government if neither side secures the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. One scenario involves Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led cabinet. This is considered a remote possibility, but some argue he is the only change bloc leader with the Right-wing background to make such a shift. His current party composition would complicate this move.

Avigdor Liberman was also mentioned as a potential mover, given his history of serving as defense minister under Netanyahu. However, current assessments say he is far from making such a leap due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister. For now, these remain scenarios rather than reached agreements. The final outcome depends on whether leaders can convince their bases to accept these shifts.