British settlement sanctions precede Israeli election defeat for Netanyahu bloc

Exit polls from the October 27 Israeli election indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc fell short of the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. This outcome occurred weeks after Britain and allied nations imposed new economic restrictions on Israeli settlement activity.

British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband unveiled the measures on September 8. The package bans imports of goods produced in settlements and restricts specific individuals and companies involved in expanding those territories. London maintains that these steps target settlement activity rather than Israel within its internationally recognized borders.

The new sanctions followed measures taken in June 2025 against National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Those earlier sanctions were coordinated with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway over alleged incitement of violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Miliband stated that Britain did not intend to interfere in the vote. He told Parliament that the election was for the Israeli people to decide their future and that the UK’s objection was to the policies of the Netanyahu government, not the population. Several MPs, including shadow foreign secretary Tom Tugendhat, expressed concern that the timing would benefit the far-right camp. Miliband acknowledged this risk but argued that the international community could not wait for an opposition government to take office.

A report published in The Spectator and later covered by Globes claimed that British diplomats and intelligence officials warned the government that announcing sanctions before the election risked influencing Israeli politics. The report said Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar asked Miliband to delay the announcement until after the vote. On September 8, Sa'ar accused the UK of blatant interference in the affairs of a sovereign state and its electoral process.

The election results show that Likud finished far ahead of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which pre-election polls had predicted would perform much better. However, the data does not isolate the impact of international pressure on voter behavior. Voters considered multiple factors, including the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, security confidence, military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, and the cost of living.

Britain states that its goal is to restrict the economic activity supporting settlement expansion and to preserve the possibility of a two-state solution. The measures’ success will depend on their implementation and their effect on settlement calculations. For now, the international pressure became part of the election debate, but the figures do not establish that it changed the final result.