Tehran Maintains Policy Stance as Brent Crude Holds Near $115

Brent crude oil traded near $115 per barrel in early Monday sessions, maintaining elevated prices despite new diplomatic assurances from Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Sunday that his government's strategic positions will not change regardless of whether President Donald Trump resumes military operations. The declaration aimed to stabilize expectations in energy markets, which have reacted sharply to supply concerns in the Middle East and Ukraine as winter demand approaches.

The price stability follows a period of heightened volatility. President Trump suggested on Friday that the United States might launch another "Epic Fury" campaign, a reference to the joint U.S.-Israeli offensive that began on Feb. 28. He framed the decision as a choice between finishing the conflict or making a deal. "I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" Trump said during a Sunday interview on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures." He also claimed the U.S. now controls the Strait of Hormuz and criticized the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated under President Barack Obama.

Speculation that new strikes could follow the midterm elections on Tuesday has added pressure to the market. The U.S. has deployed additional forces to the region, including a third aircraft carrier group, even as diplomatic staffing has been reduced. Analysts note that these movements signal a readiness for renewed action, keeping a premium on crude futures.

Iranian officials emphasized that indirect contacts with Washington continue. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the window for diplomacy remains open, with messages being relayed through intermediaries. Direct talks have appeared stalled for several weeks. Araghchi added that Washington and Israel have tried their current approach twice and "will achieve no different outcome."

Physical risks in key shipping lanes contributed to the price floor. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz was disabled by an unknown projectile on Friday. The crew was reported safe. Iran claimed it struck at least four tankers near the strait on Thursday, though these claims were not independently corroborated. Trump accused Tehran of inventing such attacks to influence prices before the elections.

Regional mediators are attempting to de-escalate tensions. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin arrived in Tehran on Monday for security talks. The discussions included Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei. Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the visit supports mediation efforts led by Qatar and Pakistan, following eight months of regional war.

Violence in Yemen also impacted regional stability. The Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward Riyadh and destroyed two launchers in Sanaa. The Iran-backed group claimed it hit Riyadh's international airport and struck oil pumping stations with drones. Earlier attacks this month closed the airport for more than two weeks and forced Saudi Arabia to postpone its flagship investment conference until 2027.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran and its proxies might attack to disrupt the U.S. elections. "Don't test us," he said on Sunday. Defense Minister Israel Katz rejected reports of a clash with army chief Eyal Zamir over a new directive, calling the account "entirely baseless." Iran's foreign ministry stated that the election result makes no difference to Tehran's strategy.