Libya's eastern bloc swaps maritime rights for a presidential bid

Eastern Libya ratified a maritime agreement with Turkey on October 20, a move designed to secure Ankara's support for the presidential ambitions of Saddam Haftar.

The House of Representatives in Benghazi approved the memorandum in a single legislative session. This action reversed a seven-year stance in which the eastern bloc had denounced the deal struck between Turkey and the rival government in Tripoli. The European Union, Greece, Israel, and Egypt all condemned the ratification. The vote is the latest step in a sequence orchestrated by Saddam Haftar, son of Khalifa Haftar, the military commander who controls eastern Libya.

The path to this vote began on October 6, when the House of Representatives removed its speaker, Aguila Saleh. Saleh had held the position for 12 years and served as Cairo's principal ally in the east. His removal also eliminated a key obstacle to the maritime memorandum. Saleh was a member of the Obeidat tribe and held the title of nominal supreme commander, a role that gave him the authority to complicate any transfer of power from his father. His successor, Al-Salhin Abdulnabi, is also from the Obeidat tribe and previously chaired the Libyan-Turkish friendship committee.

The United States is currently negotiating a power-sharing arrangement between Tripoli and Benghazi. Massad Boulos, the senior adviser for Arab and African affairs to President Donald Trump, is championing the deal. The agreement could install Saddam Haftar as Libya's president. For this to occur, he requires the backing of Ankara, which exerts decisive influence over western Libya. The ratification of the maritime deal is intended to lock in Turkish support for this outcome.

The move creates friction with other regional powers. Athens and Nicosia object to the expanded Turkish presence, while Israel remains uneasy about Ankara's reach. Egypt, the primary opponent, issued a statement focusing on legal encroachment into its exclusive economic zone. Cairo may use its improved relations with Turkey to support an alternative candidate, such as Saddam's brother Khaled, the chief of staff of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces. Khaled publicly criticized the US initiative in April.

Abu Dhabi, which has invested a decade in the Haftar project, wants Saddam to succeed. The emirate views the maritime concession to Turkey as a modest price to ensure their loyal client reaches the apex of the Libyan state. The US administration must now decide whether to proceed with the power-sharing deal despite objections from its traditional partners in the region.

The maritime memorandum originally served as the price Tripoli paid for the Turkish intervention that halted Khalifa Haftar's 2020 offensive on the capital. The document now serves as the instrument for the son's bid for power. Washington will determine if the deal proceeds, pitting its transactional interests against the concerns of Greece, Cyprus, and Israel.